Sunday, May 22, 2011

maintaining the casus belli involving the "right of return" ?

I watched President Barack Obama's speech to AIPAC. What was stunningly missing was any reference at all to the claimed "right of return", by which the Palestinians demand that the millions of Arabs who claim to be grandchildren and great grandchildren of Arab refugees immigrate into Israel. This immigration would end the existence of Israel, and former President Bush openly opposed it. This omission of any reference to the claimed "right of return" allowed the statement by President Obama that he had not changed the policy that went before. But did he?

The letter by then-President George W. Bush to then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon stated, in part:
"The United States is strongly committed to Israel's security and well-being as a Jewish state. It seems clear that an agreed, just, fair and realistic framework for a solution to the Palestinian refugee issue as part of any final-status agreement will need to be found through the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the settling of Palestinian refugees there, rather than in Israel."


If President Obama meant to continue the past policy, then clearly he would have said so. He would  have repeated the essence of what President George W. Bush said. But he didn't and refused even to say anything at all about the topic, thereby showing that he reversed President Bush's policy. His refusal to say anything at all on the topic allowed him to claim that there was no change in policy, when actually the Bush policy regarding the "right of return" was reversed by Obama.

But not only was it reversed, Obama's policy is to require the negotiators to discuss the territorial concessions that Israel will make -- and Obama has demanded that Israel meet the fullest territorial concessions demanded by the Palestinians (apart from some minor corrections in the form of swaps of equal value), without simultaneously allowing a negotiation on refugees. This takes away Israel's ability to trade Israeli concessions on territory for Palestinian concessions on the right of return. Obama requires Israel to make the maximum concessions on territory, in advance of the negotiations, by accepting the Armistice Lines as Israel's border as a basis for negotiations before they even begin, and also takes away the possibility of Israel linking it to Palestinian concessions on refugees. These lines would give Israel a width of only 9 miles from the enemy to the sea, and would give Israel indefensible borders, and the risk of being defeated militarily. But this non-linkage by Obama also means that the problem of the Arab refugees would never get solved. Israel cannot risk allowing millions of hostile Arabs immigrating into Israel, causing a civil war,  multiplying, and ending the existence of the Jewish state. And by Obama's taking away Israel's negotiating cards, and removing all leverage it could have, the Palestinians would not agree to end their demand for a "right of return". In this way, the casus belli would be maintained, and there could not possibly be peace.