Thursday, June 9, 2011

Abbas-Obama plan: First Israel capitulates then it may negotiate

The plan put forward by President Obama, which copies the territorial demands made by the Palestinians and trashes Israel's demand for a long term military presence along the Jordan, is that first Israel capitulates by agreeing to accept the pre-war 1967 lines, and then it may negotiate with the Palestinians.

In the first phase, Israel capitulates by agreeing to: hand over the Western Wall, the holiest prayer site of all Jews, to the Hamas jihadists and their Fatah partners; hand over to the genocidal jihadists Hamas the Jewish Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem, which has been a residence of devout Jews for centuries (apart from the 1948-1967 Jordanian conquest and occupation); hand over the Temple Mount, which has been the holiest of places for the Jews since even centuries before the birth of Mohammed; make 250,000 people living in Israel's capital to have the status of illegal aliens subject to expulsion or worse whims of the Hamas genocidal jihadists, for the crime of living in Jerusalem while being Jewish; slice Israel's capital city and take half of it away; make 320,000 people living in Judea and Samaria illegal aliens subject to expulsion or worse for the crime of being Jewish while living in the Jewish ancestral homeland; force Israel to the indefensible "1967 lines", the armistice lines of 1949 that lasted until the war of 1967, which give Israel a width of 9 miles and are an invitation to warfare by Israel's neighbors; give up Israel's military presence along the Jordan River, which is essential to prevent smuggling of rockets and jihadis, and to engage any invading military force to give Israel time to call up its reserve army. This demand by Obama, to prevent Israel from any hope of security by eliminating the possibility of a  long-term Israeli military force along the Jordan River, was not even mentioned by the Palestinians, but now it is part of the US demand to really crush Israel's security before it is even allowed to negotiate.

There may be other demands that would be part of the required Israeli capitulation before it is allowed to negotiate. Obama mentioned contiguity for a Palestinian state. But the Gaza Strip does not abut the West Bank, so from what we have already seen from Obama, it appears that he would interpret this as Israel consenting to split Israel in half in order to join the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

The Palestinians have also added another demand that they want from Israel before they would allow negotiation. This would be to remove property rights and any building for their needs in the areas where the more than 500,000 victims of the ethnic cleansers are living -- that is, in Judea and Samaria, and northern, southern, and eastern Jerusalem, which would apply only against Jews. Obama has already delegitimized the rights of these victims, so he may also interpret this Palestinian demand as part of his own demands before Israel is allowed to negotiate.

What Obama will, in effect, say to the Israelis is: agree to say the following words (and he will have prepared the words that he wants the prime minister of Israel to say), and later I will tell you what you have committed to.

Obama has a special relationship with matters legal. For example, he got his start in politics by entering a large field of Democratic candidates for a position in the Illinois legislature, and then challenging the signatures of all of his rivals on their nominating petitions. He got all of the candidates except himself to be ruled as disqualified, including even the incumbent (who had been his mentor), and he ran without any opposition.

He participated in the delegitimization campaign against Israel, by deciding to trash the property rights of Jews living in Judea, Samaria, and northern, southern, and eastern Jerusalem. He didn't bother to give any reason for this, instead proclaiming that the United States does not accept the legitimacy (of what he interpreted to be any building activity whatsoever by these victims, or in the designated areas to be ethnically cleansed).
Perhaps he decided that once Netanyahu agreed to give a try to a 10-month building moratorium, that was an admission that property rights were illegitimate, and never mind that there was a time limit, and never mind that it was conditioned on the expectation that the Palestinians would negotiate.

On the other hand, regarding the US war in Libya, he tells Congress that Le loi, c'est moi, the law is me. No going to Congress to satisfy the Constitution or the War Powers Act. He decides the law.

Having seen what Obama does, my guess is that once Israel agrees to Obama's formula -- say, accepting a return to 1967 lines as the basis of negotiations, with mutually agreed swaps -- and if, as expected a deadlock arises regarding agreed swaps and any further negotiations come to a stand still, then Obama will say that Israel must return to the 1967 lines or it is in violation of its own promises and therefore in violation of international law. He is collecting international support for doing this to Israel, and he will threaten Israel with international isolation if it does not go to the indefensible 1967 lines. The maximum pressure on Israel from  Obama will come during his second term in office, or even right after the November 2012 election, when he is no longer seeking votes or donations, and feels free to do to Israel whatever he likes.