Sunday, June 26, 2011

Obama makes precise demands against Israel, but no measurable demands on Palestinians

One of the peculiarities of President Obama's interventions in the Israel-Palestinian situation is that he makes precise demands against Israel, but no measurable demands on the Palestinians. His recent back-to-1967 speech at the State Department illustrates this.

The basis of negotiations, according to President Obama, will involve a return to 1967, with mutually agreed swaps. The mutually agreed swaps do not impose any measurable demands on the Palestinians. Regarding mutually agreed swaps, the Palestinians are free to just say no.

However the return to pre-war 1967 (meaning a return to the 1949 Armistice Lines) means something very precise in terms of territory -- and it involves Israel giving up all that it won in the 1967 war. The Palestinians give up nothing in return.

This implies that before the negotiations even begin, Israel would lose all of its negotiating chips. Then Israel would be free to throw itself on the mercy of the Palestinians, led by the Hamas terrorists and their Fatah partners, to see if they would want to help Israel out. The chance of this happening is about zero.

Since Israel would not have any negotiating chips when the real negotiations begin, it is clear that the starting position, the basis of negotiations, will be very important. This brings up the fact that in the basis of negotiations, according to President Obama, there are no measurable demands on the Palestinians.

Some things that are missing from the basis of negotiations:
If Israel is to have security, it needs a long-term security envelope around the Palestinian entity, including a long term military presence in the Jordan Valley. This is so basic, it should be part of the basis of negotiations.
Unfortunately, President Obama's speech appears to exclude this, since he spoke of complete withdrawals by Israel with defined time limits for the withdrawal to take place. So this essential need of Israel has been taken off the table completely by President Obama. The long-term security envelope would be mainly to prevent the smuggling of weapons into the Palestinian entity. Otherwise, planes landing at Israel's airport would be threatened by the firing of rockets and missiles, and Israel's population centers would be threatened by rockets and missiles. The security envelope would also prevent the infiltration of jihadis across the Jordan River. It would also delay a military invasion from across the Jordan River, if the present Hashemite regime fell or was compelled to allow such an invasion from another country, and this would give Israel time to mobilize its reserves.

Also missing from the basis of negotiations is Israel's need for the Palestinians to clearly recognize the right of the Jewish people to a Jewish state in its historic homeland, that state being Israel. The refusal of the Palestinians to accept this -- even to simply say, "I will accept a Jewish state" -- has been at the root of the Palestinians' endless war against Israel. Without this, and without this being taught to 2 or 3 generations of Palestinian school children, and in the mosques and in the media, there is no hope for peace since there will be no effort to end the radicalization which is at the root of the war against Israel.
 
Also missing from the basis of negotiations is Israel's need for the Palestinians to agree that the Arab refugee problem must be settled outside the boundaries of Israel. A letter from then-President George W. Bush to then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon spells this out.Otherwise, the Palestinian demand that millions of great grandchildren of Arab refugees and their relatives be allowed to immigrate into Israel, to end the Jewish state, will continue. This has been the pretext for war against Israel, and it would continue.

Without addressing these issues of a security envelope and reconciliation, and putting them into the basis of negotiations, this process is clearly a process of land-for-war.